01 — The problem
两个耦合的难题
Two coupled problems
热管理不是旁路负荷。它是算力需求、设备可靠性、地方水资源与电网碳强度之间的物理界面。
Thermal management is not an auxiliary load. It is the physical interface among computing demand, equipment reliability, local water, and the time-varying carbon intensity of electricity.
415
TWh · 2024
IEA 报告的全球数据中心用电,约合全球电力的 1.5%。
IEA reported global data-center electricity, about 1.5% of world demand.
945
TWh · 2030 base
基准情形下接近全球电力的 3%。加速计算是主要驱动。
Just under 3% of global demand in the base case. Accelerated computing is a principal driver.
7–30%+
cooling share
高效超大规模约 7%,低效企业级可超过 30%。冷却占比本身就是效率地图。
About 7% in efficient hyperscale halls, more than 30% in less-efficient enterprise sites.
μs → d
timescale span
计算脉冲以微秒计,冷源调度以小时到日计。控制器若无视滞后,会在稳态基准里显得很聪明。
Compute pulses in microseconds; plant dispatch in hours to days. A controller that ignores lag looks clever on a stationary benchmark.
数据中心用电的已发表估计在方法上并不一致。冷却占比、自下而上重标定、美国服务需求脱钩、系统动力学预测、水–碳清单与空调能耗综述,共同框出剩余不确定性。把其中任何一个数字单独写成“全球真相”,都是对文献的误读。
Published estimates of data-center electricity remain methodologically heterogeneous. Cooling-share surveys, earlier bottom-up recalibrations, US service-demand decoupling, system-dynamic forecasts, water–carbon inventories and air-conditioning reviews bound the residual uncertainty. Treating any single number as the global truth is a misreading of the literature.
第一难题:热力–计算的时间尺度错位
First problem: a thermodynamic–computing timescale mismatch
处理器功率可在微秒到毫秒内跳变;气流控制以秒响应,液体回路以数十秒,冷冻水以分钟,园区调度则以小时或日。结果是一个非线性、有滞后、空间耦合的系统。快产热与慢排热制造热点、保守温度裕度和慢性过冷。
Processor power can change in microseconds to milliseconds. Airflow responds in seconds, liquid loops in tens of seconds, chilled water in minutes, and campus dispatch over hours or days. The result is nonlinear, delayed, and spatially coupled. Fast heat generation and slow rejection create hot spots, conservative temperature margins, and chronic overcooling.
第二难题:可持续性联结
Second problem: a sustainability nexus
PUE(电能使用效率)对机房运行仍然有用,但不能判定一项热策略是否兼容碳中和。蒸发冷却可以省电却增加直接用水;跨地理迁移负载可以降低平均碳强度却增加时延或网络能耗;液冷可以减少风机功率,同时改写泵功、冷却剂材料、余热品位与隐含影响。
Power usage effectiveness remains useful for plant operations, but it cannot decide whether a thermal strategy is compatible with carbon neutrality. Evaporative cooling can cut electricity while raising direct water use. Geographic migration can lower average carbon intensity while adding latency or network energy. Liquid cooling can cut fan power while rewriting pump work, coolant materials, waste-heat quality, and embodied impacts.
min
J(π) = [
E(π),
W(π),
C(π),
R(π), −
Q(π) ]
式 (1)。π 为控制策略;负号把服务质量最大化写成与其余目标相同的最小化形式。权值不固定,因为可接受的权衡随运行与政策条件改变。
Equation (1). π is the policy. The minus sign writes service-quality maximisation in the common minimisation form. Weights are not fixed, because the acceptable trade-off changes with operating and policy conditions.